Reshaping Global Supply Chain Fragmentation: The Geopolitics–Digitalization-Sustainability Nexus İn Ethiopia

Abstract

This study critically explores how the interdependent forces of geopolitical uncertainty, digital fragmentation, and climate vulnerability, termed the “triple nexus, " reshape Ethiopia’s role within increasingly fragmented global supply chains. As a landlocked economy at the crossroads of major regional initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), Ethiopia presents a unique case of both strategic potential and structural fragility. Utilizing a systematic literature review guided by PRISMA protocols, the research synthesizes multidisciplinary evidence to assess how escalating regional conflicts, trade policy volatility, and overdependence on the Djibouti corridor expose Ethiopia’s logistics networks to chronic disruptions. Concurrently, pervasive digital divides limit the adoption of traceability and automation technologies, while reliance on foreign infrastructure raises data sovereignty concerns. Sustainability pressures, including climate-related export shocks and weak labor governance, further challenge the country’s competitiveness under evolving Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards. In response, the study proposes an integrated institutional resilience framework anchored in geo-economics, digital inclusion, and sustainability law. It identifies actionable strategies such as corridor diversification, rural digitalization, and green industrial policy. The findings underscore that for Ethiopia, and similarly positioned economies, addressing the triple nexus is no longer optional but essential to achieving resilient, inclusive, and future-ready supply chain integration.